Myanmar in 2020

Photo Source: Time
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 206, 25 January 2020
Myanmar in 2020
Old problems to persist with no solutions in the near term

  Aparupa Bhattacherjee

Five issues will remain as core problems for Myanmar in 2020; most of these, except for elections and the ICJ verdict will continue to remain the same.

2019 has been eventful for Myanmar, with an allegation of genocide by the Gambia at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), souring of the relationship with neighboring Bangladesh over the Rohingya crisis. This has also led to heavy criticism and imposition of sanctions for the same. The internal situation has also been grim with no success in the National Reconciliation Process, the continuation of conflicts especially between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Tatmadaw in Rakhine State. The economic slowdown and disagreement on the constitutional amendments led to a volatile situation.

The new year in Myanmar started with the baggage of these unresolved issues and is going to be the major problem for 2020. Apart from these, the general election which is scheduled for the end of this year will be the focus along with impending ICJ verdict. 

Will there be a change this year? Will there be a solution to these problems? Five issues will remain as core problems for Myanmar in 2020; most of these, except for elections and the ICJ verdict will continue to remain the same.

1. NLD will return to power, with less votes from non-Burman communities
In 2016, when NLD came to power there was an expectation of miraculous transformation. The much-awaited democratic government after five years seems to have failed to bring any differences and have scored poor in issues of economy, politics and press freedom. The flagship 21st Century Panglong conference failed miserably. As a consequence, the National Reconciliation process has been disrupted to an extent that the ethnic groups who were the once pro- Aung San Suu Kyi have turned against her. She, who once was seen by many as the messiah of democracy and human rights turned out to be a good politician.  Her anti-Rohingya and pro-army stand have made it evident 

Internationally, there has been vehement criticism against her and several have requested that her noble prize should be withdrawn. The US has imposed sanctions on the travel of four high ranking military leaders. However, this has not impacted Suu Kyi’s charisma back home her recent strong speech in support of the country and its army at ICJ has reasserted her role as the ‘mother of the nation’. Irrespective of her political and economic failure she has guaranteed the Burmese vote back for this election. The lack of ethnic support might hamper the numbers, but there is less doubt that she and her party are coming back to power. 

2. Rohingya Crisis will continue
The ICJ verdict is one of an important bone of contention for Myanmar this year. The ICJ is probing into five or six provisional measures proposed by the Gambia as an action to punish Myanmar. If the ICJ rules against the provisions, then there is no problem. But if approved, then the issues go to the UN Security Council, as the ICJ has the authority to give rulings but does not have the authority to enforce it. In that case, Myanmar’s only way out is its dependence on China and Russia. 

Given the international sentiments and on-going Sino-US trade war, this can hamper rather than befit the country. Myanmar is in the infant stage of its democracy should not be risking to be recognized as part of any camps. This will also impact its relationship with India, Japan, and South Korea who are some of its investors and economic collaborators.  

3. The national reconciliation process will yield little
The failure of 21st Century Panglong has been detrimental, it has hampered the National Reconciliation process. The NLD gained the support of the ethnic armed group to be the first to support their Mae Thaw Rah Hta Declaration during the military regime when it was prohibited. This support of ethnic people has assisted garnering a large number of votes from them. Hence there were expectations from the NLD organized reconciliation process in which even the army had given affirmative response to the initiation of the federal process. But after so much build-up, when the process failed it was seen as a betrayal by many ethnic groups. 

Additionally, some of the political leaders of the NLD who were part of initial negotiation with the ethnic groups and had gathered the respect are no longer part of the party. This has also dampened the trust and the process. The ongoing conflicts, especially the one between the AA and the army will make the situation worse.  This will be a crucial problem for Suu Kyi for her next tenure also.

4. NLD-Military bonhomie will continue
Suu Kyi’s only commendable achievements have been to balance her precarious relationship with the army. Due to the lack of constitutional amendment, they still play a pivotal rule in politics and governmental decisions. Hence in 2016, when NLD came to power the interference of the army was a major concern.

Over the years, Suu Kyi proved her skill of working along with her once staunch enemy proficiently. The current ICJ problem has acted as a catalyst in improving their equation which ensures the continuation of the same for this year also. 

5. Myanmar's China tilt will help internally 
Irrespective, of the ICJ verdict the international criticism towards both Suu Kyi and her country, are going to haunt them this year also. To flare the situation, Suu Kyi’s tilt towards China since coming to power is evident. Her visit in 2017, pragmatic approaches to the stalled Chinese projects in Myanmar and affirmative mention of China in her speeches makes it clear.

This tilt resulted in Chinese refusal to condemn Myanmar and support it for the Rohingya crisis, unlike others. It also led to Xi Jinping's maiden visit to the country at the starting of 2020 itself, whereby he has signed twelve deals and ensured their support. But this will have an impact on the image of Suu Kyi and Myanmar and also impact its relationship with its other neighbours and investors. This may also hamper the already slow and inefficient economy of the country. 

To conclude, 2020 there will be no changes and there will be no solution to the existing problems of Myanmar. 

Aparupa Bhattacherjee is a PhD Scholar at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan